The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey is a monthly survey based on manufacturers’ responses to questions about their Texas operations. For all questions, participants are asked whether the indicator has increased, decreased or remained unchanged. Answers cover changes over the previous month and expectations for activity six months into the future.

Over 120 manufacturers regularly participate in the Dallas Fed survey, which began collecting data in May 2004. Respondents come from all sectors of manufacturing and no one industry dominates the respondent pool.

Near the end of the month, the questions for the new manufacturing survey are electronically transmitted to respondents, and answers are collected over a few days. Survey respondents are instructed to exclude the effects of normal seasonal changes. After more data are gathered, the survey will be statistically tested for the presence of seasonality, and corrections will be made if necessary.

Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each question. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal.

There are not sufficient data to seasonally adjust the index or to test its relationship to employment, output or other data. The Texas indexes will be tested for the appropriateness of seasonal adjustment when a sufficient series is available.