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Regional Economy
Good
News and Bad News from the 2000 Census
Lori L. Taylor takes a look at the 2000 census figures—and the interesting picture they paint of the Texas labor force.
First the
Good News
The potential labor force grew much more rapidly in Texas than in
the nation during the 1990s. The working-age population in Texas
grew 23 percent between 1990 and 2000, while the national population
in that age group grew 13 percent.
Skill levels
also increased. The percentage of Texans with at least some college
increased from 47 percent to 51 percent, while the percentage without
a high school diploma fell from 28 percent to 24 percent. (All estimates
of educational attainment refer to persons aged 25 and older).
Educational
attainment increased on the border. The share of the population
with at least some college increased in all border metropolitan
areas, while the share without a high school diploma fell. The share
of the adult population in the Valley with less than nine years
of formal schooling fell from 39 percent to 32 percent.
Then the
Bad News
Despite solid gains, Texas failed to keep up with the explosion
of skills in the rest of the country. In 1990, the border area was
relatively poorly educated, while the rest of Texas had a greater-than-average
share with at least some college and a greater-than-average share
of college graduates. According to the 2000 census, both border
and nonborder areas of Texas now lag the nation in terms of educational
attainment. Nonborder Texas now has both a smaller share of college
graduates and a much larger share of high school dropouts than the
national average. Most striking is the change in the number of adults
without a high school diploma. Nationally this group fell by 3.6
million people between 1990 and 2000, but in both border and nonborder
Texas it grew.
The border
failed to keep up with the rest of Texas, much less the nation.
Where the rest of the state saw sharp increases in the number of
highly educated individuals, much of the border's growth among persons
25 and older was concentrated in individuals with less than a high
school diploma (Chart 1).
Chart
1
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To catch up
with the nation, Texas needs to reduce the share of its population
without a high school diploma. Unfortunately, the 2000 census also
suggests that Texans remain less likely to stay in school than the
residents of other states. High school and college enrollments account
for roughly 79 percent of Texans between the ages of 15 and 25.
Nationally, the figure is about 86 percent.
Much of the
Texas drop-out problem can be traced back to the opportunity cost
of schooling. Students who are in school are not bringing home a
paycheck that many families desperately need. Although getting that
high school diploma is a very good investment—earning an inflation-adjusted
annual rate of return between 12 and 20 percent—staying in school
is not economically viable for people who have bills to pay and
no access to credit. Until the poor have a way to finance the opportunity
cost of high school—perhaps through a version of what used to be
called guaranteed student loans—the poorly educated will be always
with us.
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Lori L. Taylor is a senior economist and policy
advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
SUGGESTED
CITATION:
Taylor,
Lori L. (2002), "Good News and Bad News from the
2000 Census," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Expand
Your Insight, July 3, http://www.dallasfed.org/eyi/regional/0207news.html
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