Issue 2, 2001
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
El Paso Branch

Economic Update on El Paso del Norte

The twin border cities of El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, were known in the 16th century as the single city of El Paso del Norte. Since those days, El Paso del Norte has changed in every aspect: geographic, demographic, political, cultural and economic. As a result, today the two cities are characterized by totally distinct economies. Further, they clearly represent the economic differences that exist along the entire U.S.–Mexico border.

This article will focus on the demographic profile of El Paso del Norte by comparing census data for the two cities.

The El Paso del Norte region is the second largest community along the U.S.–Mexico border, based on 2000 census figures. The largest "borderplex" community is San Diego–Tijuana, with a population of more than 4 million (Table 1).[1] McAllen–Reynosa, along the Texas–Mexico border, and Calexico–Mexicali, along the California–Mexico border, are the third and fourth largest borderplex communities, respectively; almost 1 million people live in each of these areas. Brownsville–Matamoros, with 750,000 people, and Laredo–Nuevo Laredo, with 500,000, are next. The remaining communities along the U.S.–Mexico border have populations under half a million. For example, the Nogales–Nogales region, along the Arizona–Mexico border, has a 2000 population of less than 200,000.

El Paso del Norte's 2000 population is almost evenly distributed by gender. Males account for 49.5 percent and females 50.5 percent of the total population. Also, the region's population is predominantly young. In 2000, about 47 percent of the population was under 25 years old. A decade earlier, however, the region's population was even younger; a majority—52 percent—was under age 25.

El Paso, Texas
El Paso ranked 23rd in population among all U.S. cities in 2000, down a notch from 22nd in 1990 (Table 2). In 2000, El Paso's population approached 680,000, up from just under 592,000 in 1990. The city's average annual population growth during this 10-year period was 1.5 percent, lower than the state average of 2.3 percent but higher than the national average of 1.3 percent.

El Paso's population is younger than that of the nation as a whole. In 2000, 43 percent of El Paso's population was under the age of 25; the corresponding figure for the United States was 35 percent. The percentage of El Paso's population under 25 dropped 2 points in the last 10 years, from 45 percent to 43 percent. Ten years ago 36 percent of the U.S. population was under 25.

The gender distribution of El Paso's 2000 population shows females in the majority, with 52 percent, and males with 48 percent.

Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua
Ciudad Juárez ranked as Mexico's fifth largest city in 2000. The top four cities were Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey and Puebla. Tijuana, which like Juárez borders the United States, was the sixth largest city.

Ciudad Juárez's population exceeded 1.2 million in 2000, up from 800,000 in 1990 (Table 2). The average annual growth over the 10-year period was 5.3 percent. Juárez experienced much higher population growth than the state of Chihuahua and than Mexico as a whole. Chihuahua's average annual population growth during 1990–2000 was 2.5 percent; the corresponding figure for Mexico was 2 percent.

Both Juárez and Mexico have seen a slight upward shift in the age of their populations over the past 10 years. Fifty percent of Juárez's population was under the age of 25 in 2000, compared with 53 percent for all of Mexico. In 1990, both Juárez and Mexico had a higher—and similar—proportion of people under age 25: 57 percent for Juárez and 58 percent for Mexico.

In 2000, the gender distribution of Juárez's population showed an almost even split between males (50.3 percent) and females (49.7 percent). In 1990, the city's population was also almost evenly divided, but then females held a slight majority (50.5 percent).

Whites are the second largest group in El Paso, at 17 percent in 2000; whites make up 69.6 percent and 52.4 percent, respectively, of the national and state populations. Blacks and Asians account for 3.1 percent and 1 percent, respectively, of El Paso's population. These groups constitute 11.6 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, of the nation's population and 11.3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, of the state's population.

Although Hispanics represent about 78 percent of the total population in El Paso, other U.S. border cities have even higher concentrations of Hispanics (see Table 1). For instance, in Laredo, Hispanics account for over 94 percent of total population. McAllen, Brownsville and Nogales also have Hispanic populations that exceed El Paso's. San Diego, on the other hand, has a much lower Hispanic population—about 27 percent in 2000.

The high concentration of Mexicans in El Paso is virtually unchanged from 1990. Puerto Ricans and Cubans have 0.6 percent and 0.1 percent shares, respectively, also with little change during the last decade. In 2000, only about 22 percent of the El Paso population was not Hispanic or Latino; in 1990, the figure was just over 30 percent.

Clearly, El Paso's population is predominantly Hispanic and becoming more so. During the last decade, the Hispanic population share increased by over 8 percentage points. El Paso's Hispanic population is expected to remain high and may even increase as a share of total population if this recent trend persists.

Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua
Like all Mexican border cities, Juárez attracts a great deal of migration from the interior, and the 2000 data point to an increasing rate of in-migration. In 2000, about 32 percent of the city's population originated outside the state of Chihuahua, up from less than 29 percent in 1990 (Table 3). The top five states that sent migrants to Ciudad Juárez were Durango, Coahuila, Veracruz, Zacatecas and Distrito Federal, Mexico's capital city.

Durango occupies the first place throughout the period with more than 120,000 people in 2000, up from 78,000 in 1990. Coahuila ranked second, with about 76,000 people in 2000 and 45,000 in 1990. Veracruz showed the most dramatic change, however, moving from ninth to third during the 1990s with a dramatic 1,200 percent increase. More than 45,000 migrants from Veracruz lived in Ciudad Juárez in 2000, up from about 3,400 in 1990—an average increase of more than 100 percent per year.

The remaining two states, Zacatecas and Distrito Federal, either lost share or maintained the same share. Zacatecas, with 43,000 people in 2000, lost a percentage point during the last decade. The Distrito Federal share remained unchanged at 1.7 percent.

Coincident with increasing migration from other states, the share of native Chihuahuans in Juárez dropped from 66 percent in 1990 to 59 percent in 2000. But while in-migration from other Mexican states went up over 3 percentage points, the number of foreign-born inhabitants rose only slightly.

With the exception of San Diego, the United States' most populated border counties show much lower literacy rates than corresponding state and national levels, according to 1992 estimates (the latest available).[2] At 80 percent, San Diego has the highest literacy rate, followed by El Paso and Nogales at 64 percent and 61 percent, respectively (Table 4).

Mexico's most populated border municipalities present an interesting contrast. In 1990, Nogales had the highest literacy rate, 97.2 percent. Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana were next with 96.3 percent and 95.6 percent, respectively. Mexico's overall literacy rate was 87.4 percent (1990) versus 77–79 percent for the United States (1992), but again it is important to note the differing criteria.

Summary
The two border cities that make up El Paso del Norte are demographically alike in some ways and strikingly different in others. Ciudad Juárez, on the Mexican side, is growing considerably faster than El Paso, Texas, and faster than both its state of Chihuahua and Mexico as a whole. Between 1990 and 2000, Ciudad Juárez grew 53 percent versus 15 percent for El Paso.

Both border cities have a predominantly young population. Forty-three percent of El Paso's population and 50 percent of Ciudad Juárez's are under 25. However, Ciudad Juárez is close to Mexico's average age, while El Paso's population is considerably younger than that of the United States. Both cities had a smaller percentage of population under 25 in 2000 than they did in 1990.

El Paso's population is 78 percent Hispanic and trending upward; nearly two-thirds are of Mexican origin. Corresponding figures for people of Mexican origin are 7.3 percent for the United States and 24.3 percent for Texas. Ciudad Juárez has seen increasing in-migration from other Mexican states. The largest 1990–2000 percentage increase—1,200 percent—has come from Veracruz.

The two cities of the El Paso del Norte region show opposing literacy patterns. El Paso has a lower literacy rate than the state and national levels. In contrast, Ciudad Juárez's literacy rate is higher than its state and national counterparts. This pattern is consistent along the U.S.–Mexico border.

—Roberto Coronado and Lucinda Vargas

About the Authors Coronado is an economic research assistant at the El Paso Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Vargas, a former senior economist at the El Paso Branch, is now executive director of the Plan Estratégico de Ciudad Juárez, A.C. Notes However, El Paso–Juárez is the largest borderplex community when you focus on the definition of two contiguous border communities. In the case of San Diego–Tijuana, the immediate border community of Tijuana is San Ysidro. According to the San Diego Association of Governments, the population of San Ysidro is 36,179; thus, the total San Ysidro–Tijuana border community population would be 1,248,411. This is considerably less than the El Paso–Juárez borderplex population of 1.9 million. Although Mexican literacy statistics are available for 2000, we use 1990 data to compare more closely with the 1992 U.S. data, which are the latest available. The next literacy rate estimates for the United States are expected to be released by 2003. About Business Frontier Business Frontier is published by the El Paso Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Subscriptions are available free of charge. Please direct requests for subscriptions, back issues and address changes to the Public Affairs Department, El Paso Branch, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 301 E. Main St., El Paso, TX 79901-1326; call 915-521-5235 or 915-521-5233; fax 915-521-5228; or subscribe via the Internet at www.dallasfed.org. Articles may be reprinted on the condition that the source is credited and a copy of the publication containing the reprinted material is provided to the Research Department, El Paso Branch, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Publications Director: Kay Champagne Copy Editor: Jennifer Afflerbach Design: Gene Autry Layout & Production: Laura J. Bell