First Quarter 1993
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Recessions and Recoveries
Mark A. Wynne and Nathan S. Balke

The U.S. recession that began in July 1990 may have ended in April or May 1991. The pace of the subsequent recovery has been so sluggish as to be indistinguishable, in the eyes of many, from continued recession. One explanation for the sluggish pace of the recovery is that the recession itself was not particularly severe, at least when compared with others.

In this article, Mark Wynne and Nathan Balke use monthly data on industrial production to examine the hypothesis that the severity of a recession determines the pace of the subsequent recovery. They show that, historically, the relationship between growth in the first twelve months of a recovery and the decline in industrial activity from peak to trough is statistically significant. However, there is no relationship between the length of a recession and the strength of the recovery. Consistent with their finding of a bounce-back effect for industrial production, the recovery from the 1990-91 recession is the weakest in the period covered by the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index, just as the decline in industrial production over the course of that recession is the mildest on record.

A Look at Long-Term Developments in the Distribution of Income
Joseph H. Haslag and Lori L. Taylor

Developments in the distribution of income have received much attention over the past decade. Several analysts have argued that income gains have gone almost exclusively to the highest paid 20 percent of the population, leaving no gains to the remaining 80 percent.

Joseph H. Haslag and Lori L. Taylor examine developments in income inequality over the past forty years and estimate which factors account for these changes over time. While some researchers have found that income distribution became more equal during the 1950s and 1960s and then less equal after the mid-1970s, Haslag and Taylor find evidence that an upward trend in income inequality has been occurring since the early 1950s. They also find that movements in the income inequality measure are mostly determined by persistence; that is, income inequality adjusts gradually. Demographic features account for nearly 25 percent of the variation in income inequality, while policy actions explain less than 15 percent.

The Costs and Benefits of Fixed Dollar Exchange Rates in Latin America
John H. Welch and Darryl McLeod

Chronic inflation and the importance of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for the domestic price level have led some Latin American countries to consider returning to a fixed dollar exchange rate. John Welch and Darryl McLeod examine the costs and benefits of real exchange rate movements and their relevance for the credibility of inflation policies in countries now contemplating free trade agreements with the United States.

The authors discuss the experiences of several Latin American countries and describe the problem their policy-makers face when deciding to follow either fixed or flexible exchange rate rules. Fixed exchange rates that are credible can decrease inflation rates, but only at the cost of policy flexibility in the face of adverse changes in the terms of trade or foreign interest rates. The current relative stability of international markets has led some Latin American countries to complement their stabilization and reform policies with fixed exchange rates.