Second Quarter 1998
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Some Implications of Increased Cooperation in World Oil Conservation
Stephen P. A. Brown and Hillard G. Huntington

In this article, Stephen Brown and Hillard Huntington combine recent studies of world oil markets and the nascent literature on damage estimates from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to derive cost and benefit curves for the reduction of these emissions through cooperative programs of oil conservation. Their analysis shows that the desirability of extending cooperation in global energy conservation policies is essentially an empirical issue rather than a conceptual one. The current evidence suggests that over the next two decades, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will have an incentive to reduce its oil consumption and the associated CO2 emissions by more than is optimal from a world perspective. During this period, extending cooperation to the oil-importing developing countries may push oil conservation too far.

Does the United States Still Overinvest in Housing?
Lori L. Taylor

Savvy investors allocate their resources across different types of investments to maximize their returns; savvy societies do likewise. Just as with the private sector, society maximizes the return on its investments when risk-adjusted social rates of return equalize across all types of investments. Unfortunately, whereas market arbitrage ensures that risk-adjusted private rates of return equalize, no similar mechanism exists to guarantee that risk-adjusted social rates of return are also equalized. Thus, society may invest relatively too much in some types of capital and relatively too little in others. The relatively low risk-adjusted social rate of return to housing led many researchers to conclude that the United States overinvested in housing before 1986.

Much has changed in the U.S. housing market since 1986, however. In this article, Lori L. Taylor extends previous analyses to examine the case for overinvestment in housing in the post-1986 period. Her analysis of risk-adjusted social rates of return indicates the U.S. economy could grow faster if society shifted more of its resources away from housing and into high school education and, especially, nonhousing fixed capital. Thus, the evidence suggests that despite substantial reform, the United States continues to overinvest in housing.

The Dynamic Impact of Fundamental Tax Reform Part 2: Extensions
Gregory W. Huffman and Evan F. Koenig

In this second of two articles on the economic impact of fundamental tax reform, Gregory Huffman and Evan Koenig extend their earlier framework for analyzing how the adoption of a flat-rate consumption tax would affect the economy over time. They argue that if tax reform is to be successful in stimulating investment and raising long-run living standards, then it is important that ways be found to avoid increasing the rate of labor-income taxation. Increases in labor-income tax rates can undo the positive economic effects of a cut in the rate of capital-income taxation. Conversely, cuts in labor-income tax rates reinforce savings incentives and contribute to higher steady-state levels of consumption. Huffman and Koenig also demonstrate that the economy’s immediate response to tax reform is muted—and the overall adjustment process can be substantially prolonged— when firms find it expensive to add quickly to their stocks of plant and equipment.