|
Issue 2, March/April 2003
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Regional Update
Despite looming global uncertainties,
data suggest the Texas economy has improved slightly in recent
months. Economic indicators are mixed, but there are positive
signs going forward.
Texas payroll employment was flat throughout
2002. But while the employment situation didn’t improve,
Texans’ take-home pay did. Texas personal income has
risen for five consecutive quarters, with the strongest growth
coming in the last two quarters for which we have data (second
and third quarters of 2002). The coincident index (our timeliest
measure of currrent conditions in Texas) has also emerged
from negative territory—barely. Overall, the evidence
suggests Texas may have entered a period of jobless recovery.
The leading index for Texas improved
over the last quarter of 2002, which may signal a future upturn
in the economy. Most of the components were positive, including
higher well permits and an improved Texas value of the dollar.
Declines were posted in the help-wanted index and average
weekly hours. Real oil prices during the fourth quarter also
put a slight strain on the Texas economy, but recent developments
in the energy sector suggest this will not be the case in
upcoming months.
The Texas economic climate is lukewarm
at present. Energy and defense related manufacturing are doing
reasonably well, and the decline in the transportation sector
has begun to slow. But telecom continues to fare poorly, and
the construction sector has weakened. While the economic fundamentals
are sound in Texas and there is reason for optimism, the starting
date for a full-fledged recovery remains unclear.
—Jason L. Saving and Priscilla
Caputo
| Regional Economic Indicators |
|
|
Texas Leading Index |
TIPI† total |
|
12/02 |
112.3 |
124.5 |
|
11/02 |
112.4 |
124.7 |
|
10/02 |
111.6 |
124.8 |
|
9/02 |
111.8 |
125.3 |
|
8/02 |
113.5 |
125.1 |
|
7/02 |
113.0 |
125.3 |
|
6/02 |
114.6 |
124.9 |
|
5/02 |
115.8 |
125.0 |
|
4/02 |
115.9 |
124.5 |
|
3/02 |
115.3 |
124.1 |
|
2/02 |
114.7 |
124.4 |
|
1/02 |
115.5 |
124.5 |
|
| † Texas Industrial Production Index. |
| Texas Employment* |
|
|
Mining |
Construction
|
Manufacturing |
Government |
Private service-
producing |
|
12/02 |
155.9
|
559.6
|
990.4
|
1,632.2
|
6,066.4
|
|
11/02 |
156.0
|
556.8
|
993.4
|
1,620.6
|
6,068.3
|
|
10/02 |
156.2
|
556.3
|
996.0
|
1,628.1
|
6,070.8
|
|
9/02 |
155.8
|
556.0
|
998.5
|
1,626.5
|
6,076.6
|
|
8/02 |
158.2
|
556.3
|
1,001.9
|
1,621.5
|
6,081.4
|
|
7/02 |
156.8 |
558.9 |
1,005.1 |
1,618.2 |
6,082.7 |
|
6/02 |
158.0
|
559.3
|
1,006.2
|
1,621.7
|
6,112.3
|
|
5/02 |
159.3
|
559.9
|
1,009.7
|
1,614.4
|
6,117.2
|
|
4/02 |
160.1
|
559.7
|
1,012.6
|
1,610.3
|
6,119.6
|
|
3/02 |
159.5
|
560.0
|
1,014.0
|
1,609.8
|
6,117.6
|
|
2/02 |
160.8
|
559.4
|
1,018.0
|
1,606.7
|
6,113.9
|
|
1/02 |
161.7
|
561.1
|
1,024.8
|
1,603.4
|
6,112.3
|
|
| * In thousands. |
| Total Nonfarm Employment* |
| |
Texas |
Louisiana |
New Mexico |
|
12/02 |
9,404.5
|
1,919.8
|
764.3
|
|
11/02 |
9,405.1
|
1,919.0
|
766.4
|
|
10/02 |
9,407.4
|
1,921.2
|
764.1
|
|
9/02 |
9,413.4
|
1,920.4
|
759.5
|
|
8/02 |
9,419.3
|
1,922.0
|
759.6
|
|
7/02 |
9,421.7
|
1,912.5
|
762.8
|
|
6/02 |
9,457.5
|
1,916.7
|
762.5
|
|
5/02 |
9,460.5
|
1,919.9
|
761.0
|
|
4/02 |
9,462.3
|
1,921.4
|
761.1
|
|
3/02 |
9,460.9
|
1,923.5
|
762.5
|
|
2/02 |
9,458.8
|
1,922.9
|
762.9
|
|
1/02 |
9,463.3
|
1,926.1
|
762.2
|
|
| * In thousands. |
For more information on employment data,
see "Reassessing Texas Employment Growth" (Southwest
Economy, July/August 1993). For TIPI, see "The Texas
Industrial Production Index" (Dallas Fed Economic
Review, November 1989). For the Texas Leading Index and
its components, see "The Texas Index of Leading Indicators:
A Revision and Further Evaluation" (Dallas Fed Economic
Review, July 1990). Online economic data and articles
are available on the Dallas Fed's Internet web site, www.dallasfed.org.
| About Southwest
Economy
Southwest Economy
is published six times annually by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas. The views expressed are
those of the authors and should not be attributed
to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal
Reserve System.
Articles may be reprinted
on the condition that the source is credited and
a copy is provided to the Research Department
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Southwest Economy
is available free of charge by writing the Public
Affairs Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas,
P.O. Box 655906, Dallas, TX 75265-5906, or by
telephoning (214) 922-5254. |
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