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Issue 6, November/December 2004
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Regional Update
The Texas Coincident Index, a
broad-based indicator of current economic conditions
in Texas, has grown only slightly over the last several
months, suggesting steady but slow economic recovery
is under way.
Job growth continues to be modest.
During the last four months, Texas nonfarm employment
has remained below a 1 percent annualized growth rate.
In September, employment grew by only 6,400 jobs—a
0.81 percent annualized increase. During the recovery,
Texas employment has grown at a pace similar to the
nation’s. Historically, Texas employment growth
has been at a considerably higher rate than the nation’s.
Employment gains continue to be
concentrated in several sectors of the Texas economy,
including educational and health services, professional
and business services, and trade, transportation and
utilities. New sectors contributing to the overall growth
are construction and financial activities. The latest
data on the information sector reveal that it remains
too early to judge whether employment in the sector
is on the way to recovery.
The Texas Leading Index offers
some hope for faster growth in the Texas economy in
the coming months. Although the index has fluctuated
over the last several years, the September 2004 increase
is the greatest gain in the leading index since November
2003.
—Anna Berman
| Regional Economic Indicators |
|
|
Texas Leading Index |
TIPI† total |
9/04 |
119.0 |
129.3 |
| 8/04 |
117.9 |
129.4 |
| 7/04 |
117.4 |
129.4 |
| 6/04 |
117.5 |
128.6 |
| 5/04 |
117.9 |
128.7 |
| 4/04 |
118.2 |
128.4 |
| 3/04 |
117.5 |
128.1 |
| 2/04 |
117.3 |
128.3 |
| 1/04 |
117.3 |
127.6 |
| 12/03 |
117.9 |
127.2 |
| 11/03 |
116.9 |
127.2 |
| 10/03 |
116.0 |
127.8 |
|
| † Texas Industrial Production
Index. |
| Texas Employment* |
|
|
Mining |
Construction
|
Manufacturing |
Government |
Private service-
producing |
9/04 |
149.8 |
543.4 |
881.2 |
1,656.3 |
6,237.7 |
| 8/04 |
150.0 |
542.1 |
882.9 |
1,654.4 |
6,233.0 |
| 7/04 |
149.9 |
540.0 |
884.3 |
1,653.5 |
6,228.6 |
| 6/04 |
149.9 |
540.4 |
887.1 |
1,653.1 |
6,219.3 |
| 5/04 |
149.3 |
542.1 |
887.5 |
1,652.8 |
6,212.9 |
| 4/04 |
149.1 |
540.6 |
886.5 |
1,651.7 |
6,203.9 |
| 3/04 |
149.2 |
542.1 |
886.5 |
1,650.3 |
6,189.8 |
| 2/04 |
148.5 |
543.0 |
887.8 |
1,647.4 |
6,181.1 |
| 1/04 |
148.2 |
545.0 |
888.8 |
1,647.0 |
6,174.3 |
| 12/03 |
145.9 |
545.6 |
889.5 |
1,645.1 |
6,155.8 |
| 11/03 |
145.4 |
544.4 |
890.8 |
1,643.9 |
6,144.1 |
| 10/03 |
145.3 |
547.4 |
891.4 |
1,643.9 |
6,140.5 |
|
| * In thousands. |
| Total Nonfarm Employment* |
| |
Texas |
Louisiana |
New
Mexico |
9/04 |
9,468.9 |
1,903.0 |
795.1 |
| 8/04 |
9,462.5 |
1,909.3 |
793.1 |
| 7/04 |
9,456.5 |
1,914.5 |
790.8 |
| 6/04 |
9,449.6 |
1,910.8 |
790.6 |
| 5/04 |
9,444.8 |
1,908.5 |
789.0 |
| 4/04 |
9,431.9 |
1,913.5 |
786.6 |
| 3/04 |
9,418.3 |
1,910.5 |
785.4 |
| 2/04 |
9,407.1 |
1,909.7 |
782.2 |
| 1/04 |
9,403.5 |
1,910.5 |
780.4 |
| 12/03 |
9,385.0 |
1,900.7 |
782.4 |
| 11/03 |
9,371.7 |
1,904.7 |
779.8 |
| 10/03 |
9,371.2 |
1,905.9 |
778.1 |
|
| * In thousands. |
| About
Southwest Economy
Southwest Economy
is published six times annually by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas. The views expressed
are those of the authors and should not
be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Articles may be reprinted
on the condition that the source is credited
and a copy is provided to the Research Department
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Southwest Economy
is available free of charge by writing the
Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, P.O. Box 655906, Dallas,
TX 75265-5906, or by telephoning (214) 922-5254. |
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